Thousands of churches across the United Kingdom are at risk of shutting down over the next five years, according to the findings of a new survey that point to a continuing decline in church viability driven by financial strain, location and denominational pressures.

While most congregations believe their church buildings will remain open, a significant minority are doubtful, with estimates projecting up to 2,000 closures by 2030, according to a nationwide survey by the National Churches Trust, a U.K.-based charity focused on preserving historic places of worship.

The study, which included 3,600 responses from churches in England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, was conducted in May and June, but its findings have only recently been released.

Just under 70% of churches surveyed said they were confident they would remain open for worship through the next five years, and another 26% reported they were “probably” secure, Christian Today reported.

However, 5% expressed uncertainty about their future, a proportion that translates to around one in every 20 churches facing the possibility of closure if extrapolated nationwide.

The study found that churches in rural areas were more vulnerable than urban ones.

Seven percent of respondents from the countryside anticipated that their churches would shut down, which would amount to roughly 900 closures in rural regions. Rural churches tend to face greater challenges in upkeep, volunteer recruitment and regular attendance.

The survey also revealed that denominational affiliation plays a significant role in closure risk.

Methodists were the most uncertain, with 12% of Methodist congregations indicating that they might not survive beyond 2030. Presbyterians followed, with 9% expressing similar doubt.

While Baptists and Independents showed lower levels of concern, they still represented a meaningful share of those at risk. Anglicans, who account for the largest proportion of U.K. congregations, reported the lowest closure risk at 4%. However, due to their greater numbers, this figure still equates to around 700 possible closures, including an estimated 40 in Wales.

The status of the church building also appeared to affect the outlook.

Churches with historic Grade I listed status were more confident about their future than those operating from unlisted or non-designated structures. Grade I listed buildings benefit from certain protections and public recognition, which can assist with funding and conservation support.

In contrast, unlisted churches or those in poor condition might face higher maintenance costs and fewer opportunities to access grants. The frequency of use and the condition of the building were among the top concerns listed by congregations as factors threatening their long-term viability.

Many smaller churches struggle to host regular services or community events, which can affect their relevance to local residents and donors.

Cathedrals, which tend to receive stronger institutional and public support, reported full confidence in their ability to remain operational through 2030. Their larger reach, symbolic status and tourism income might shield them from some of the financial and demographic challenges faced by local congregations.

In June, NCT described the condition of church buildings as an “existential moment,” as it launched the Future of the U.K.’s Church Buildings survey to identify causes of closure and explore potential strategies for sustainability, according to Premier Christian News.

One recent policy shift might be aggravating the problem.

Churches can now claim up to £25,000 (over $33,500) per year under the Listed Places of Worship Grant Scheme, but only for repair bills exceeding £1,000 (over $1,300). This cap has limited the financial support available to smaller congregations, particularly those with multiple minor repair needs rather than a single large project.

In Wales, where church attendance and population density have been declining in tandem, 25% of churches have already closed over the past 10 years. The trend has heightened concerns about regional imbalances in church survivability and placed pressure on remaining congregations to absorb displaced members or find new uses for disused buildings.

A 2021 study by The Brierley Research Consultancy showed that the number of churches in active use for worship across the U.K. had fallen from approximately 42,000 to 39,800 over the past decade, according to Evangelical Focus. The NCT said churches were increasingly being sold, demolished or converted into housing, with closures worsened by reduced funding and lackluster attendance after COVID-19 lockdowns and a growing repair bill.