US births declined in 2025 after 2024 bump: new CDC data

(LifeSiteNews) — American births saw a modest decline in 2025, reversing an uptick seen the year before and potentially previewing the same kind of population replacement issues that have long plagued other nations.

The Associated Press reports that, according to the latest provisional data released by the US Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC), a little more than 3.6 million births were reported in 2025, which is 24,000 fewer than the year before. The final data is not expected to differ by more than a “few thousand.” 

Full data is not yet available shedding light on all the factors behind the trend, but the primary drivers are generally attributed to both social and economic factors, such as marrying later in life, foregoing marriage at all, and fears of being financially capable of supporting a baby, which have persisted since COVID-19 policies largely shut down the U.S. economy. The post-virus reopening had been associated with a two-year jump in birth rates, but the downward trend resumed in 2023.

“I wouldn’t expect birth or fertility rates to have risen; I would expect them to fall because childbearing is highly related to economic conditions and uncertainty,” said University of North Carolina family demographics expert Karen Guzzo.

What’s more, data from BirthGauge indicates that the fertility rate in every individual U.S. state has now fallen below the replacement level of 2.1:

Fertility rates have survived poverty, war, famine, etc. throughout history.

The internet depressing in-person relationships and the decline of religion and culture are the primary factors.

Government can’t fix that. https://t.co/NEYbHLXTbM

— Bonchie (@bonchieredstate) February 16, 2026

Live Action notes that the U.S. Congressional Budget Office projected last month that America’s death rate will be higher than its birth rate by 2030. Additionally, the news coincides with polling from Gallup and Marist indicating that public opinion on abortion has been trending in a more pro-“choice” direction for several years.

Numerous nations in Europe and Asia have faced far graver demographic challenges far longer than America has and experimented with a variety of economic measures to try to promote a higher birth rate (while the likes of the United Nations actively discourage having children). But others argue the problem is primarily cultural.

“We have a fertility crisis because we have a marriage crisis,” argues Katy Faust, founder of the parental rights group Them Before Us. “We have a marriage crisis because we have a dating crisis. We have a dating crisis because young people are forming few in-person relationships. Christians, it’s time to model every layer of faithful connection, from friendship to courtship to covenant.”